2022年1月28日

Pork prices down, the agency forecast February CPI 0.5% year-on-year

On March 10, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the consumer price index (CPI) for February 2021. A number of institutions are expected that the year-on-year CPI inflation in February fell slightly and continued to be in negative territory.

In January, China’s consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent year on year. As for the upcoming February CPI data, Wind data shows that the average forecast of 14 institutions for February’s year-on-year CPI growth as of March 9 was minus 0.5 per cent. Among them, the maximum predicted value is 0% given by Huatai Securities, and the lowest is -1.9% given by Shanghai Securities.

Institutions generally believe that the rapid decline of pork prices in food items is the main reason for the decline in CPI.

Haitong Securities research reports that since February, pork, eggs and other prices have fallen significantly. Vegetable prices have picked up significantly in the early stage, but they have also shown a downward trend in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the wholesale price of pork on February 1 solstice7, FebruarysolsticeBBB1 21, Febrsolstice 22 BBB28 solsticeMarch 1 BBB37 decreased by 2.4%, 5.9%, 8.7% and 0.4%, respectively, compared with the previous week.

Data diagram. China and Singapore Longitude and Latitude Photography

According to the Notice on the Release of Central Reserve Frozen Pork on March 10, 2021 issued by the China Storage Network on March 8, the auction of central reserve frozen pork will be carried out on March 10, with an amount of 10,000 tons. This will be the ninth launch this year, with a total output of 210,000 tons, according to a survey by a reporter from China-Singapore Jingwei.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the second inspector Xin Guochang estimated that the first quarter of the national pig market compared with the same period last year can increase about 40%, in the second half of the national pig market and pork supply is expected to completely return to normal, pork supply situation is becoming more and more loose, from the point of view of the price, pork prices will also decline.

Haitong Securities analysis, pig production recovery momentum is good, can breed the number of sows and year-on-year growth at a high level. In the context of relatively sufficient supply and stable expectations, pork prices are expected to continue to fall. (Xin Xin Jingwei APP)

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