2022年1月17日

China’s commercial housing prices are expected to rise by 2% to 3.5% in 2022, according to the Center

China News Service Beijing December 2 (reporter Pang Wuji) China’s real estate market 2021 Summary & AMP;2022 Outlook was released by the Middle Finger Research Institute on Thursday at the 2021 China Real estate Big Data Conference. The report forecast that in 2022, China’s commercial housing sales area may decline, with a small structural increase of 2% to 3.5%.

Huang Yu, executive vice president of middle Finger Research Institute, predicted that during the “14th five-year plan”, China’s total commercial housing turnover in 6.6 billion square meters to 6.8 billion square meters, namely: the average annual commercial housing turnover in 1.3 billion square meters to 1.4 billion square meters. In 2021, affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the transaction area appears overdraft. As a result, the sales area of commercial housing is likely to decline by 6.8% to 8.3% to about 1.6 billion square meters in 2022. That number is likely to decline gradually over the next few years.

From the perspective of housing price, Huang yu pointed out that the future land market structure may continue to optimize, the demand for housing will gather in more attractive cities, namely: the first and second tier cities. In the context of the gradual increase in the proportion of commercial housing transactions in the first and second-tier cities, it is expected that the average price of commercial housing sales will continue a small structural upward trend in 2022, with an increase of 2.0% to 3.5%.

In terms of policies, more than 450 real estate regulation policies were issued across China in 2021. Looking ahead to 2022, the report predicts that the general tone of “housing not speculation” will remain unchanged. However, as the adjustment of the property market deepens, the credit environment is expected to improve significantly, and the overall situation may continue until the first quarter of 2022. However, under the supervision of the banking side of the “two red lines”, the possibility of a significant relaxation of the credit end is small. In addition, the real estate tax pilot or landing, short – term or further impact on buyers expectations.

On the other hand, the housing market “two-way” adjustment mode or throughout the year, some of the strong housing price resilience of the city, if the market appears significantly warming up, the regulation policy will also quickly follow up, the establishment of second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism, tightening credit; And some real estate market adjustment pressure big city, also will moderate adjustment policy, stabilize market expectation. (after)

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